Education as a shield against unemployment: empirical evidence from Ascensión, Huancavelica

Abstract

The objective of this research was to determine the influence of educational attainment on unemployment in the district of Ascensión, Huancavelica, a territory characterized by high socioeconomic vulnerability and the predominance of informal employment. The methodology was based on a non-experimental, cross-sectional design, using a logistic regression model (LOGIT) applied to a probabilistic sample of 367 individuals belonging to the Economically Active Population, with data collected during 2023 in urban areas, specifically in the city center. Educational attainment was measured through years of formal schooling and classified into five categories: initial level (0–3 years), intermediate primary level (4–6 years), primary level (7–11 years), secondary level (12–15 years), and higher education (more than 16 years). The LOGIT model results showed a negative and highly significant relationship between years of academic training and the probability of being unemployed, confirming that human capital acts as a direct protective factor against open unemployment, in line with Human Capital Theory. However, this strong protective effect must be interpreted with caution, as the regional context suggests that it may be masking problems of qualification-based underemployment or overeducation, stemming from the mismatch between high educational attainment and limited demand for formal employment. Therefore, the main conclusion is that education is a necessary but insufficient condition; a dual strategy is required that combines the urgent improvement of the quality and relevance of education (Morales, 2021) with the promotion of productive diversification and economic formalization, so that educational investment translates into higher-quality jobs rather than merely a lower open unemployment rate.