APOYO MONETARIO INSUFICIENTE Y

RESULTADOS EN SALUD: EL CASO PERUANO

FINANCIAL SUPPORT FAILURE AND HEALTH RESULTS:

THE PERUVIAN CASE

Jorge Guillén Uyen1

1Universidad ESAN, Lima, Perú. Correo electrónico: jguillen@esan.edu.pe

ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4511-2108

Recepción: 24 de mayo del 2022

Aprobación: 10 de junio del 2022

RESUMEN

El documento arrojó luz al analizar la eficiencia del apoyo financiero del gobierno pe-ruano en

comparación con algunos países de la región de América Latina y del mundo. La Pandemia del

Covid 19 obligó a los gobiernos a aplicar el “Golpe de Martillo” que afectó negativamente a la

economía produciendo recesión y desempleo. Los gobiernos compensan este último efecto

aplicando políticas de subsidio a los pobres y luego reducen las consecuencias económicas

negativas del confinamiento general sin contraer el COVID. Nuestro estudio realiza un Modelo

de Diferencias y Diferencias (DID) para evaluar la efectividad de esta última política.

Palabras clave: DID, Evaluación de Bonos

ABSTRACT

The paper shed the light in analyzing the efficiency of Peruvian Government Financial Support

in comparison with some countries in the Latin American Region and worldwide. The Covid 19

Pandemic enforced governments to apply the “Hammer Blow” which affected negatively the

economy producing recession and unemployment. Governments offset the latter effect by

applying subsidy policies to the Poor and then reduce the negative economic consequences of

the general lockdown without getting COVID. Our study performs a Difference and Difference

Model (DID) to evaluate the effectiveness of the latter policy.

Key words: DID, Subsidy Assesment

Ponencia presentada al XXXII Congreso Nacional de Estudiantes de Economía del Perú – CONEE Huancavelica 2022,

ciudad de Huancavelica (Perú)

Revista Oeconomicus UNH (2022), Vol. 2, Núm. 2, pp. 24 - 29

ISSN:

2955-859X (En línea)

DOI :

https://doi.org/10.54943/revoec.v2i2.198

1. INTRODUCTION

Many governments worldwide have made the decision to assume the opportunity cost of

compulsory social isolation of the poor. In particular, the Peruvian president Martin Vizcarra

declared a State of National Health Emergency due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The objective

of this rule was to ensure that the majority of the vulnerable population remains in their

homes isolated from all contagion. Along this line, the Peruvian government has chosen to

apply a policy of granting monetary subsidies progressively to mitigate the adverse economic

impact of compulsory social isolation. The four types of bonds cover 6.1 million households

for an amount of S/ 4.46 billion [1]. Also, a series of measures have been initiated to alleviate

the effect of isolation on SMEs and large companies through programs such as REACTIVA

Peru. The latter program subsidy for firms may avoid layoffs and offset fixed labor cost

deteriorated by the economic shutdown.

The main objective of the paper is to find the efficiency of the Financial Support to the poor

during the State of National Health Emergency. [3] also analyzed economic consequences of

the lockdown or “hammer blow” which attempted to reduce Covid 19 cases and permitted

health assistance to most of the population in Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Italy and USA had

peaks of 812 and 2,349 deaths during the first wave of cases (March- June 2020). Emerging

Countries like Peru, Brazil and Chile, the number hit 584, 650 and 96 death cases during the

same period [4].

In addition, [3] shows heterogeneous economic and health results after the

application of financial support for the Poor. Emerging Economies had more negative

consequences in comparison with Developed Economies. The different infrastructure,

degrees of informality and ability to cope between the latter set of countries induced

heterogeneous results. Our study complements

the results of Loayza.

[6] Show how stimulus payments to low-income households increased consumer spending

sharply, but little of this increased spending flowed to businesses most affected by the

COVID-19 shock, dampening its impacts on employment. [7] shows for a sample in UK

that the effect of the Pandemic was homogeneous across gender However for [8] the effect

of COVID on employment was asymmetrical and deepened by age for his sample in the US.

Our study focusses the initial Pandemic effects in Peru, an emerging economy that may have

different effects according to [3] and we will focus the attention on the financial support for

vulnerable families in order to offset economic and health negative effects within latter

groups.

Next section presents the subsidy policy during the Pandemic for a set of countries in the

Latin American Region as well as some Developed Countries. Some Statistics are presented

which show preliminary results in lines with our hypothesis set up above. Then a Model of

Difference and Difference (DID) is presented along the results, to finally conclude.

2. DEVELOPMENT

See [2] and [3].

There are more case waves with significant effect on death. Lately, we do not have significant amount of deaths since

vaccination has progressed worldwide. The data of our study span the first wave of Covid 19 cases.

Also in [5] there is a discussion of low fiscal space characterized by emerging economies.

Apoyo monetario insuficiente y resultados en salud: el caso peruano

2.1.

The Peruvian Case

Since August 2020, Peruvian Government provided demand stimulus given by the

following programs:

• Bond “Yo me quedo en casa”

• Bond “Rural”

• Bond Familiar Universal

• Bond Independiente

• Bond “Mype”

The Bond "Yo me quedo en casa" is aimed at Households in poverty or extreme

poverty according to the Household Targeting System (SISFOH) and is granted under

the responsibility of the Ministry of Development and Social Inclusion [9].

The Bond “Rural” aimed Households in conditions of poverty or extreme poverty in

rural areas according to the Household Targeting System (SISFOH). For details see

the Emergency Decrees No. 027-2020 and No. 033-2020 [10].

The Universal Family Bond is targeted for households whose members are not

registered in the Application for the Centralized Registry of Payrolls and Public Sector

Data (AIRHSP) or in the available private payroll, and who have not received or will

not receive the monetary subsidy from the “Independent” Bond, “Yo me quedo en

Casa” and “Rural” Bond. Finally, the “Mype” Perfect Suspension Bond is for workers

who are in a perfect suspension of job

, who belong to the microenterprise labor

regime and whose gross remuneration is up to US$ 700 dollars per month. More than

6 million people were benefited from the first provision of Bonds which were set in

the first half of 2020. The idea is to offset drop in consumption of the vulnerable

population within the country.

3. CONCLUSIONS

It has been verified that the disbursement granted by the government has been below the

average of the region. The disbursement has been granted only once in a period of austerity

and quarantine of almost six months. This situation generated movement of agents,

increasing the probability of contagion and therefore death from COVID.

Then we have verified in the DID model that there is no significant difference between the

treatment and control groups in terms of deaths. We may infer the latter conclusion since

the treatment variable effect resulted with a non-significant sign.

It is not a layd off situation, is just a suspensión of payroll payments.

Jorge Guillén Uyen

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Apoyo monetario insuficiente y resultados en salud: el caso peruano